Economists expect 7.5% growth rate for FY10

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Reserve Bank Of India
New Delhi, May 30 : The Economists are feeling economy will expand more than what is expected by the official estimate of 7.2% when the growth figures for the 2010 fiscal will be released on Monday, May 31

As per the official estimate made before the year came to an end, FY10 GDP growth was forecast at 7.2 per cent. Most of the economists feel that it can even touch the rate of 7.5%.

“The fourth quarter GDP number is expected to surprise us positively due to a possible upside...it is likely to be printed at 9.3 per cent," said Religare"s Jay Shankar.The first three quarters of the fiscal grew by 6.1 per cent, 7.9 per cent and 6 per cent respectively.

Shankar also expects a positive, marginal upward revision in the numbers for the other three quarters as well, which he said could move the FY10 GDP numbers closer to 7.5 per cent.

Chief economic adviser Kaushik Basu, too, had predicted the fourth quarter growth rate to be over 8.6 per cent, which will ensure FY10 growth over the official estimate of 7.2 per cent.

Economic growth slowed down to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 after over 9 per cent growth in the previous three fiscals as it came under the impact of global financial crisis.

For the economy to grow by 7.2 per cent, it must expand by over 8.5 per cent in Q4, in case the figures for the previous quarters are retained.

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