Washington, Oct 14 (ANI): A simulation model of a pandemic outbreak developed by Canadian researchers has shown that timely steps, especially the quick distribution of vaccines, can help limit and reduce the attack rate of the H1N1 influenza virus.
The model developed by researchers from the University of Toronto, the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion and the Research Institute of the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto and the University of Guelph in Guelph, Ontario, was presented in a new report that has appeared in the CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal).
The article gives a simulation model that tries to predict the number of people who will be infected while different disease control tactics are being applied.
The model replicated a pandemic outbreak based on population sizes of London, a mid-sized city in Ontario, Canada as well as epidemiologic influenza pandemic data.
While calculating the population that will get affected by the pandemic, it took into account the effect of the vaccination timing, closure of schools and antiviral drug treatment policies as well as the result of pre-existing immunity.
The model mathematically predicts how and when vaccination can flatten the peak of the outbreak and delay the peak.
The authors of the study Dr. Marija Zivkovic Gojovic and others write: "The results of our pandemic influenza simulation model suggest that vaccination can have a disproportionately large impact on reducing the attack rate in a "fall wave," although delays can significantly erode its effectiveness." (ANI)