Global warming: No food by 2100
Washington, Jan 9: Global warming is already showing its dire consequences on nature. Now it is likely to give rise to severe food shortage by the end of this century, according to researchers, who claim that the rapidly warming climate may alter crop yields in the tropics and subtropics.
And
the
worst
hit
will
be
the
regions
where
the
poorest
people
already
live
that
is
the
tropics
and
subtropics.
According
to
the
researchers,
there
is
greater
than
a
90
percent
probability
that
by
2100
the
lowest
growing-season
temperatures
in
the
tropics
and
subtropics
will
be
higher
than
any
temperatures
recorded
there
to
date.
"The stresses on global food production from temperature alone are going to be huge, and that doesn't take into account water supplies stressed by the higher temperatures," said David Battisti, a University of Washington atmospheric sciences professor.
"This is a compelling reason for us to invest in adaptation, because it is clear that this is the direction we are going in terms of temperature and it will take decades to develop new food crop varieties that can better withstand a warmer climate. "We are taking the worst of what we've seen historically and saying that in the future it is going to be a lot worse unless there is some kind of adaptation," he added.
During the study, the researchers combined direct observations with 23 global climate models that contributed to Nobel prize-winning research in 2007 and used the data as a filter to view historic instances of severe food insecurity, they concluded that such instances are likely to become more commonplace.
Those include severe episodes in France in 2003 and the Ukraine in 1972. In the case of the Ukraine, a near-record heat wave reduced wheat yields and contributed to disruptions in the global cereal market that lasted two years.
The serious climate issues will not be limited to the tropics, the scientists conclude. As an example, they cite record temperatures that struck Western Europe in June, July and August of 2003, killing an estimated 52,000 people.
The
summer-long
heat
wave
in
France
and
Italy
cut
wheat
yields
and
fodder
production
by
one-third.
In
France
alone,
temperatures
were
nearly
6.5
degrees
Fahrenheit
above
the
long-term
mean,
and
the
scientists
say
such
temperatures
could
be
normal
for
France
by
2100.
In
the
tropics,
the
higher
temperatures
can
be
expected
to
cut
yields
of
the
primary
food
crops,
maize
and
rice,
by
20
to
40
percent,
the
researchers
said.
But rising temperatures also are likely to play havoc with soil moisture, cutting yields even further. "We have to be rethinking agriculture systems as a whole, not only thinking about new varieties but also recognizing that many people will just move out of agriculture, and even move from the lands where they live now," Naylor said.
Temperature
increases
from
climate
change
are
expected
to
be
less
in
equatorial
regions
than
at
higher
latitudes,
but
because
average
temperatures
in
the
tropics
today
are
much
higher
than
at
midlatitudes,
rising
temperature
will
have
a
greater
impact
on
crop
yields
in
the
tropics.
The
research
appears
in
journal
Science.
ANI