New Delhi, Nov.7 : A pre-poll survey conducted by Star News and Nielsen has predicted that the Shiela Dixit led-Congress government might get a third chance in Delhi. Residents of Delhi are although unhappy with the Congress government over issues like inflation, deteriorating law and order, terror attacks and lack of drinking water; but this might not be enough for BJP or any other party to form a government in Delhi.
The survey was conducted between October 27 and November 1, with a sample size of 6248 voters. The survey was conducted before the prominent parties announced their candidates for the elections. Star News and Nielsen will once again conduct a survey just before the elections, so that a clear picture emerges.
The outcome of the survey suggests that Congress will lose its vote share by 6.1 percent compared to the last elections, but will manage to win 38 seats in the assembly. The BJP and the BSP are poised to increase their vote share, but will not be able to edge out Congress. The survey suggests that the Bhartiya Janata Party will get 29 seats, with an increase in its vote share by 4.2 percent. BSP is predicted to get 10% votes, but it will not be enough for the party to convert it into seats. Others are predicted to get around 8.5% votes with three seats in the assembly.
Electorates have admitted that price hike, law and order and terrorism are the main issues in the ensuing elections. Most of the people who admitted of being angry with the Congress rule, said that they are upset with the grand old party due to rise in inflation, deteriorating law and order and terror attacks.
On the performance of the Shiela Dixit in the last 10-years, 46% term it as good and very good, while 24 percent termed it as bad or worse. Forty Six percent thought that their standard of living got better in the last five years, while 17 percent think it to have turned the other way. Shiela's performance got a 'good' tag from 48 percent, while a good 20 percent rated it as bad.
Only 31 percent of the total sample size termed the main opposition party BJP's performance as good as an opposition party, while 22 percent said it was either bad or worse. BJP's Chief Ministerial candidate got only 14 percent as a good candidate for the post of Chief Minister against the reigning CM Shiela Dixit's 37 percent.
Most of the people questioned during the survey thought that price rise, unemployment, poverty, corruption and administration went from bad to worse during the tenure of Shiela Dixit.
Some questions related to the coalition government at the Centre and its leaders were also asked to the respondents to get a better picture of their mindset. A good fifty percent of the respondents were happy with the performance of Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister, while 17 percent were not happy. Thirty eight percent said that they were happy with the performance of the Union government, while 20 percent said that the performance was not good. Manmohan Singh led the choice as the Prime Minister with 20 percent, followed by BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee at number two with 15 percent and at number three was BJP's PM in waiting Lal Krishna Advani with 10%. The most interesting revelation was the mass support Rahul Gandhi got; he scored over his mother with a 14 percent compared to Sonia Gandhi's 12 percent. Rahul was voted most by the youth.
Sample of the Survey
Total Respondents - 6248
Age group- 18 to 25 years -- 1322
Age group- 26 to 35 -- 1660
Age group- 36 to 45 years -- 1679
Age group- 46 and above --1587
Timeline of the survey
October 27 to November 1
Assembly Constituencies - 31
Seats won in 2003 elections
Vote share in 2003 (%) INC