In fact, the met office has forecast widespread rainfall in parts of northwest India, including Delhi, from June 13 onwards which weather experts feel could be the pre-monsoon rains. Given the fact that pre-monsoon rains usually occur in an area about a week ahead of arrival of monsoon, observers feel a heavy spell of rain in Delhi this weekend could well indicate an early tryst with monsoon for the capital city. An early arrival of monsoon in Delhi is in keeping with the current progress of advancement of south west monsoon in various parts of the country. "Ever since its onset in Kerala last month, where it arrived earlier than scheduled, the south west monsoon has been advancing ahead of its schedule," the IMD official said. In fact, monsoon arrived in Gujarat yesterday, several days ahead of its normal date of arrival on June 14. And, as per current indications, it may arrive in areas in central India and northern India like Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh in the next 48 hours.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into remaining parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, some parts of east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar pradesh during next two-three days,'' the met office said in its forecast yesterday. With Uttar Pradesh within its reach, one would expect that the next stop of the monsoon would be in Delhi.
However, IMD officials say it takes some time for monsoon to advance from central India to Delhi and other parts of northwest india. "Usually, the monsoon advances in surges. And, it's advancement from central India to northwest India is not usually in a single surge. At times, the monsoon could advance from central India to north west India in a week's time while at some other time, the advancement could take upto a month,'' the IMD official said.
While noting that this year the progress of rainfall in the country had been very good, the official said for monsoon to happen in a particular area, its has to receive bountiful rainfall over a long period of time and not merely a few spurts of heavy showers accompanied with thunderstorms. The predictions of an early monsoon this year follow an unusually cool weather during the month of May this year with the mercury plummeting to a record low and the capital city witnessing its highest ever rainfall for the month of May at 165 mm, the previous highest being 129.3 mm in 2002.
The weather in June too has been quite cool with the clouds hovering over the skyline on most days of the month till now. Infact, last week, on June 5, the mercury plummeted to 32 degrees, making it the coolest June 5 in the last six years.