Washington, May 15 : India could use Tuesday's serial bombings in Rajasthan capital Jaipur to create a crisis with Pakistan, America's private intelligence gathering agency STRATFOR has claimed
In a commentary published here and accessed by the Daily Times, STRATFOR writes that prior to the diplomatic process that took off in late 2003, New Delhi often accused Islamabad of abetting terrorism.
Thereafter, as part of an effort to normalise relations, India has limited their claims that the Pakistanis were falling short in preventing cross-border terrorism.
STRATFOR says that the difference between the older stance versus the more recent stance is significant. In the past, India could not afford to continue with routine diplomacy. ill it revert to the old rhetoric is a question that remains to be answered.
According to the Daily Times, Washington is uneasy over the fact that either through weakness or through policy, Islamabad may try to reach an accommodation with the Taliban and al Qaeda, not to split the Taliban, but to reduce the threat to Pakistan, something that will directly affect American interests in Pakistan.
"It has been clear that American levers in Pakistan are limited. More so than in the past, the U.S. would benefit now by playing its old game with India. The US needs pressure on Pakistan from India to allow Washington an opportunity to mediate while exacting a price from Pakistan for getting India to stand down. India has not wanted to play that game for several years, and the U.S. has not needed to. It is unclear whether the Indians want to play that game now, and it is unclear whether Washington is asking them to do so," the STRATFOR commentary says.
"However, this attack gives India a policy option. If it wants to test the new government in Islamabad, while also giving the US opportunities to pressure it, the terror attacks have given New Delhi the justification and the opportunity to move in that direction," it adds.
At the moment, the commentary speculates, the Indian government is not sure what it is going to do. In recent years, it has avoided allowing attacks like this to escalate. But with recent food and energy problems, as well as looming state and general elections, India is feeling internal political pressure more intensely, and the geopolitical situation has shifted sufficiently in Afghanistan and Pakistan to make this a potentially worthwhile option.
"It will be difficult for the Indians to simply let this pass, but the question is how far they are prepared to go. Also unknown is what Indian intelligence is telling the government about who the attackers were and the degree of support from Pakistan. We are not yet in a crisis, but for a range of reasons, this gives India the opportunity to create one if it wants to," the analysis concludes.