New Delhi, Oct 14: India is likely to become a net exporter of petroleum products worth 497.01 billion dollars by fiscal 2012-13 in the wake of exports growing at a much faster pace than imports despite crude prices touching an all time high, said an ASSOCHAM Eco Pulse Study.
As per the industry chamber Assocham's projections, imports of petroleum products in value terms would be to the range of 429.45 billion dollars in next five years.
According to the study on 'Petroleum Trade' for the period FY 1999-00 to 2006-07 the petroleum products exported by India have been growing at a whopping rate of 73 per cent for last three years.
While, the petroleum oil and lubricants (POL) imports hiked at a comparatively lower rate of 40.6 per cent. The study said that if the same growth trend continues, value of oil exports will surpass its imports in next six years.
ASSOCHAM President Venugopal N Dhoot said, ''Even as the energy requirements of the Indian economy are rapidly increasing, capacity expansion of the refineries both at public and private level would help maintain the growth momentum of the exports of petroleum products.'' Petroleum exports were valued at 0.03 billion dollars in the FY 1999-00, which increased to 18.53 billion dollars in the fiscal 2006-07 growing at the compound annual rate of 96.5 per cent.
Imports on the other hand, increased from 12.6 billion in the FY 1999-00 to 57 billion in FY 2006-07 recording a CAGR of 32.7 per cent, the study claimed.
''With consistent robust growth rate on the exports front, the value of exports is estimated to touch 497 billion dollas by fiscal 2012-13,'' Mr Dhoot added.
Petroleum exports for the financial year 2006-07 stood at 18.53 billion dollars registering an increase of 22.77 per cent as compared to 11.63 billion dollars worth of exports incurring 13 per cent growth in previous year.
However, the study said that the growth rate of petroleum imports has declined over the last two years. While in FY 2005-06, the imports grew at 47 per cent at 43.95 billion dollars, the growth slowed to 29.7 per cent in FY2006-07 with the imports amounting to 570.36 billion dollars.
''The imports in current fiscal 2007-08 have shown growth of only 8.32 per cent, despite crude prices touching 80 per barrel dollar,'' the ASSOCHAM study added.
Commenting on the rupee appreciation front, the study said the growth in the import bill could be on account of Rupee appreciation of nine per cent since March 07, which makes the landed price of crude oil cheaper.
The impact of rupee rise on export performance would have been neutralised because of content of import of crude oil. The oil imports would grow to 429 billion dollars in next five years, the study further added.
The growth in the petroleum exports can be attributed to the increase in installed capacity of the refineries by 18 per cent from 112,040,000 tonnes in the FY 2000 to 132,468,000 tonnes in FY 2006, said Mr Dhoot.
The production of petroleum products has increased by 50 per cent during the same period from 79,411,000 tonnes to 119,750,000 tonnes.
The study also said that Asia accounted for a significant share of India's POL exports amounting 6.8 billion dollars in the FY 2006-07 and 4.3 billion dollars in previous fiscal.
Within Asia, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Japan are the major oil products importing countries for India with exports worth 0.69 billion dollars, 0.55 billion dollars, 0.42 million dollars in FY07.